Caution: Real Estate May SLOOOW!

Discussion in 'Real Estate' started by gugaplex, Jul 5, 2006.

  1. Im Not Warren Buffett

    Im Not Warren Buffett Active Member Original Member

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    I have a feeling Grim is going to disagree with me on this, but housing is an excellent place for contrarian investors to find value. NVR worked very well for me this week, and I think there is money to be made with housing stocks.

    Boom and Bust in Housing
     
  2. Grimreaper

    Grimreaper Active Member Original Member

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    Yeah....it evun looks like da "high risk" lenders (FMT, NFI, LEND, HMB) may have dodged a bullitt. :roll: It does appear dat da mawkets have fergiven these dawgs though huh? Anna I'm wreckin dat ifn these POS will survive....like da mawkets say they is gonna, ifn ya judge by the 200%+ across da bored premiums they was given since the 52 week lows....then a fine homebuilder POS like TOL should survive fo sho. :D Maybe ya should watch LEND, FMT, NFI, n HMB fo mo clues stawtin say....oh I dunno.....next week? :oops: :lol:
     
  3. frusnak

    frusnak Active Member Original Member

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    I think we are close but not at the bottom. There are still way too many housing units on the market and the prices are a little out of sync with the real world.
    The question is how long will the market remain stagnant when it finally come to rest at the bottom!
     
  4. Im Not Warren Buffett

    Im Not Warren Buffett Active Member Original Member

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    Right now I am in the process of putting together a quick but hopefully comprehensive overview of several housing stocks. My goal is to have it available by Sunday night, but I'm going to the Red Sox-Yankees game (go D-Mat!) so its going to be close with the amount of time I have. Worst case is probably Monday...
    Either way, results should be coming soon. :wink:
     
  5. Grimreaper

    Grimreaper Active Member Original Member

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    Here in my area ave prices are holdin steady. But ifn ya look within da local RE mawket you can already buy a nice home fer about 10K abov tax assessed value......which ainna too shabby. :wink: I'd look for rehab homes to buy right now. In genrul buyers don't like to rehab....and da flippers are now outta da mawket since buying a home and expecting to flip it fo a nice profit has been taken outta da equation. Dat means fokes trying ta sell a house in disrepair are gonna have to be most flexible on price and/or terms. Ifn you are buying a home to live in you can already find decent buys.....but sellers are still under the ether as fer as what they be axin in genrul. Hang in there....I'm werkin on it. :wink: :D
     
  6. Im Not Warren Buffett

    Im Not Warren Buffett Active Member Original Member

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    Here it is... http://www.valuestockreports.com/homebrief.htm

    It goes over six of the bigger homebuilders, and I can't stop myself from poking fun at Gugaplex with TOA either. Hope you like it...

    Oh, and GO RED SOX! :D
     
  7. Grimreaper

    Grimreaper Active Member Original Member

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    I wouldn werry bout da existing home sales report this moanin. I think home sellers will "maybe" begin lowerin their axin prices now....so sales should pick up a tad....unless maybe da stock mawket does a majer tumble soon....you know, "sentiment" n chit. :roll: BTW, yer tai-ming on this heeeeya RE spew n synopsis was perfeckt! :lol: Maybe not as good as Cramer's tai-ming ov bringin da CEO ov RS on Mad Monkey last night when he realized steel was so good he had to reiterate his call on RS. :roll: BTW pawt deux....I think Cramer may have read what I said about him raising his price tawgets bafo his initial tawget even gets hit. This moanin on his segment wit da luvly and totally clueless Erin da dumb Brunette he said da DOW hits 14000....then he had to clarrify datit hits 13000 foist! :lol: Too freakin funny. :roll:
     
  8. Grimreaper

    Grimreaper Active Member Original Member

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    Dubya B doin one heck ova job balancing the ole RE port. TOL up 50 centavos...BLDR...well....BLDR not doin as well. :lol: To be honest witya's :arrow: I'd take da .50 centavos and run! :shock: :lol:
     
  9. Grimreaper

    Grimreaper Active Member Original Member

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    Nice!...since the day Dubya B tried to resue da RE mawket TOL has fallen about 8%...the thing that Dubya B may not have taken into consideration is da fackt dat da Reaper...da hero ov da common man was heeeeya to oversee da shennaniguns. :wink: Ifn you remember....Dubya B wanted to use a bottom call on RE to "enhance" his postion on FCX n BLDR. So let this be a warnin to ya :arrow: Always check to make sho da person who is comin ta put new pipes, boards, n materials into yer home is a licensed perfessionull. I think Dubya B would jist got paint over everything....including yer dog!....ifn ya let him do da werk. :? Just my opinyun of course. :roll: :lol: Oh...did I mention BLDR? :D
     
  10. Grimreaper

    Grimreaper Active Member Original Member

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    We had 2 RE sales repotes this past week. One bout new home sales...one bout existing home sales. New home sales moved higher at a duble diggie clip. :shock: Here da hoedown on existing homes :arrow: Sales "unexpectedly" fell 2.6%....unexpectedly becuz da fokes dat was unexpecting it obviously wasn't heeeya to read what I said at this discussion bored mumphs ago. :D Mo intrusting chit bout existing homes :arrow: Inventories of unsold homes rose 10.40% to 4.2 million...an 8 mumph sooply. :? It is always intrusting to look at divergences like this right cheeeya and put da thinkin cap on insted of ignoring it....like Hank Paulson is. Oooops!..my bad...Hank Paulson didn ignore it when he said sumthin to the effect that housing appears to be ternin just this past week. I guess da govmint doan show the fokes runnin our foreign trade policy da actual numbas bafo they send em off ta werk. :lol: Plus I'm sho the bigwigs at Paulson's ole stompin grounds GS may have quite a stake in "bad loan" muny. :wink: On a more posi note...da Reaper still testing da waters in da RE mawket here in my town. I found a gem ova shack (2100 sq/ft living, 2800 tot) which is appraised at $160K cause of disrepair (seller showed me appraisal done by bank to secure home equity loan) and it is tax assessed at $122K....seller axin $125K. This guy is smart IMO becuz I say "Why wait for the mawket to adjust down to you?...get yer cash and get to hell out!" :lol: Anyhoo, I offered him $112K....I will pay off his $70K home equity loan and he will carry a note with a 3 year baloon....ifn he accepts my offer dat is. And he really shouldn't cause I'm tryin ta steal it from him! :D
     
  11. mastermike311

    mastermike311 New Member Original Member

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    My brother just bought a house and is now renting it for twice his mortgage. It pays to have good credit.
     
  12. Grimreaper

    Grimreaper Active Member Original Member

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    Plus it also pays ta be a landlord in Cali. California is the ONLY state in da nayshun where you can take out at $350000 mortgage on a property at $1500/mo....and find sumbudy stoopid enuff ta rent out da property fer $3000/mo! :lol: You are from Cali...right? :D
     
  13. Grimreaper

    Grimreaper Active Member Original Member

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    Well my congrats to da seller with the great big house fer $125K here in my town...sold to a willing buyer who also got a great deal IMO. Dat be da way negotiashuns sposed ta end...no? :D But check thisn out that I'm werkin on. A 3br 1985 mobile home (12oo sq ft) on .62 acres in a highly sought after area of horse farms and agricultural property. The county assesses it at $51K. What happend here is a predatory lender used da bubble years as a means to take advantage of this owner...but of course she stepped up to a 13.50% home equity line in the year 2000. The property obviously doubled in value since...but the owner passed away and now the estate must sell as the property is in foreclosure. The final judgement date was on Mon and da bank wants 28K. I got the executor of the estate to fax a letter to the attorney handling the foreclosure to let him know that da bank (Citimortgage) has a party intrested in taking care ov da note prior to sale...which is in 30 days. Dat party be me of course. :D Let's see how low I kin git Citimortgage ta bend....knowing da muny will be wired to their "coughers" in 3 days.....assuming they contact me of course. I'll keep ya posted case ya wanna know how low they'll go. I'm sho Citimortgage and affiliates scammed a few fokes in yer home town...they're nationwide in they're scamming scope. :roll: BTW, does anybudy want this property? :lol: Luckily fo yuns there be fokes like me willing to cash banks outta their mistakes...or else da govmint would pile all da crap on po Fannie Mae...then ya'd ALL be payin! :wink:
     
  14. Grimreaper

    Grimreaper Active Member Original Member

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    Well, it didn take long to get the land n mobile home sold. There was actually a bidding war in the end to a final sale at $40K...The seller made a mistake and left a few thousand on the table becuz she signed an exclusive right to sell agreement with a realtor who brung on da buyer. I actually got the property sold at $45K as my buyer upped his bid once he learned there was competition. But it was already too late as the seller jumped at the first offer. :roll: I basically will make nuthin on this transaction whereas I woulda made $3K from my buyer....plus any amount I was able to negotiate out of Citimortgage....and I was in the process of doing that until this realtor clown came along. :twisted: The family ov the estate would have ended up with about 8K net if they waited fo me....and they wouldn have had ta pay me nuthin. Insted they'll end up with more like $3K for gettin sidetracked. I really wouldn't feel right takin much ov anything from them since I know how they snookerd themselves. :roll: Ohhhhhhh well, NEXT! :lol:
     
  15. Grimreaper

    Grimreaper Active Member Original Member

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    Well...sum good news fo da Reaper on the last deal as the seller agreed to pay da Reaper $2K out of her $10K net as da sale closes this week! I'm glad she came to her senses since she may need my "exspurt" advice agin in da future! :lol: Here's another I setup over da weekend and the task at hand is simply to find a financier for this deal. I found a fueding couple with a free n clear 1996 triplewide mobile on 1 acre ov land. The husband already quit-claimed his equity over to the wife. She moved out...he wants to stay but she wants to cash out. The tax-assessed value of the property is $98K...but I suspect it should be more since the market value is more like $175K and the property was actually listed with a realtor for $205K at one time. The woman agreed to take a net of 65K!!! :shock: The fly in the ointment is that in order to do so the property must be sold back to the husband for $95K....and I just get the feeling he's a total fukkup! :lol: Not too chabby of a return ifn we kin get him on a lease option insted....which would make it much easier to take back the property when he misses his first "highly inflated" lease payment about 2 or 3 munths into the lease. :roll: :lol:
     
  16. danielhenry31

    danielhenry31 New Member Original Member

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    More stable markets has reduced the annual income, but still show 3-4% per year returns. The problem is that returns will only core inflation, which discourages further investment in demand for real estate. This decrease in pressure in the property investment market in general, but not so that we have an accident.
     
  17. t-bag

    t-bag Member Original Member

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    I love revisiting old predictions, right or wrong. Let me update my above statements from 2006 on the first page.

    As of 03/10 Palm Beach County median home price is now $246,100 and median condo price is $90,000.

    It wasn't a sudden, overnight, 50% devaluation but it was still a 50% drop.

    And in other news I just purchased my second hand gun to go with my other hand gun, rifle and shotgun. I would prefer to be wrong about the world ending. But just in case....
     
  18. leannemarks

    leannemarks New Member Original Member

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  19. Huntress

    Huntress New Member Original Member

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    Thanks for the heads up, but is this in general?
     
  20. harrybicon

    harrybicon New Member Original Member

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